Dan Campbell’s Aggressive Approach Sparks Debate About NFL's Fourth-Down Decisions

It's time for an intervention in the NFL, where coaches' decisions on fourth down have clearly tipped from aggressive to addictive.

At the very least, it's time for meetings. Monday mornings feels like the right time. Detroit feels like the right place to set up our charter chapter.

"Hi, my name is Dan and I can't stop going for it."

"Hi, Dan."

Lions coach Dan Campbell went for it on fourth down five times Sunday night in Philadelphia, including a fake punt in the second quarter and on all three of Detroit's possessions in the third quarter.

He went for it, in order, from his own 48 (fourth-and-1), his own 43 (fourth-and-2), the Eagles' 32 (fourth-and-5), the Eagles' 3 (fourth-and-goal) and the Eagles' 45 (fourth-and-3) -- all while trailing by no more than seven points.

The results, again in order: Jahmyr Gibbs ran for no gain; linebacker Grant Stuard ran for no gain on a direct snap in punt formation; Jared Goff threw an incomplete pass to Jameson Williams; Goff threw an incomplete pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown; and another Goff-St. Brown incompletion.

The Lions were stopped all five times and lost 16-9, falling to 6-4 and dropping out of the NFC playoff picture if the season ended today.

Campbell admitted afterward that a more conservative approach on fourth down would have given Detroit "a better chance of winning that game than some of those decisions I made."

"I understand that, but also that's who we are. It's who I am, and it bit us today," he added.

Well, they do say that the hardest part with any addiction is admitting there is a problem.

Campbell's compulsions are hardly unique. The only meetings that might draw more attendees than the fourth-down coaching addicts are the emotional support groups for undervalued punters.

Through Week 11, nine teams had run 20-plus plays on fourth down, with the Carolina Panthers (27) and New York Giants (25) the only teams with more attempts than Detroit (23, tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars). Only four NFL teams had gone for it on fourth down fewer than 10 times.

Compare that to a decade ago to see the influence of groupthink and advanced analytics. In 2015, only four teams went for it on fourth down more than 20 times during the entire season, and none more than 24 times.

Eagles coach Nick Sirianni made his own curious fourth-down decision with three minutes left on Sunday night.

Up 16-6 with fourth-and-1 at his own 29, he went for it and Detroit stuffed Jalen Hurts for no gain. Four plays later, the Lions kicked a field goal to make it a one-score game and still had all three of their timeouts. Sirianni was bailed out by a phantom pass-interference penalty that enabled the Eagles to run out the clock.

A week earlier, another late fourth-down failure by Philly allowed Green Bay to attempt a potential game-tying 64-yard field goal. The Packers missed and the Eagles won, 10-7.

As Sirianni explained after dodging disaster against Detroit, the decisions to go for it are part formula and part feeling.

"There's a lot of different factors that go into it. It always starts with the players and the play that you're calling first. Do you have faith in the players that you have? The analytics can say what it wants, but if you don't have faith in the players to go execute it, that doesn't give you a lot of confidence," Sirianni said.

"... Analytics is a piece of the puzzle. All these different things are a piece of the puzzle. Your past successes, the league studies that you do, all these things play into that."

It's probably too late to curb this addiction. Fans can only hope that their coaches have the serenity to accept when they shouldn't go for it, the courage to know when they should, and the wisdom to know the difference.